What this cannot tell you.
Everything below is a reason to trust the numbers above it. A tool that cannot state its limits cannot be believed about anything else.
It cannot tell you whether you will win next month
It measures the record behind you. It has no view on any event, ever, and it will not form one. A past edge is a property of a past sample, not a promise about the future — and the interval around it is usually wider than the edge itself.
It cannot tell you why
Calibration and closing line value say whether your probabilities and your prices were good. They say nothing about the mechanism. You can score well and not know why, which is worth knowing, because an edge you cannot explain is an edge you cannot defend when it stops.
It cannot rescue a small sample, and it will not pretend otherwise
At forty bets the intervals are enormous and most bins are unscored. Hindcast refuses to smooth that into a confident line. The honest reading of a small sample is that it cannot yet tell, and the tool says so rather than inventing a number — nothing here fails silently to green.
It cannot see the forecasts you did not log
Self-reported records carry survivorship. The rows you forgot, or decided not to record, are invisible to the maths. If those omissions were not random — and by inclination they rarely are — every figure on the page is optimistic by an amount no calculation can recover.
It cannot tell you when a forecast was actually made
Hindcast can prove a row has not been altered since it appeared on a published record. It cannot prove the forecast was made before the event unless it was published before kickoff. Those are different claims, and conflating them is how a track record becomes a story. Publish in advance and the row is stamped; do anything else and you are asking to be taken on trust.
It cannot tell you whether an edge is bankable
You can beat the closing line and still be restricted to £4.20 a bet. You can hold a genuine edge in a market that closes your account. Valuation and availability are different problems, and this tool only knows about the first.
It cannot size your stakes or model your bankroll
Stake sizing is a decision about your own risk, capital and access, and Hindcast has no opinion on it. Log a stake and it will compute your return on investment from it; it will not tell you what the stake should have been.
It has no opinion on any event, ever
No tips, no selections, no predictions, no view on tomorrow. There is no bookmaker link, logo or referral code anywhere in this product, and the money comes from forecasters who want to know the truth about their own record — never from anyone with an interest in what they bet.
Most people who run this will find they cannot yet demonstrate skill. That is the expected result, not a failure of the tool, and not a reason to buy anything. If that is your outcome, take the reading and keep your money. We would rather be the thing that told you the truth for nothing than the thing that sold you a subscription to a flattering chart.